In late October of this year, the U.S. government ceased qualitative easing (QE), a program which had involved the Federal Reserve purchasing government bonds to the tune of billions (you read that correctly – with a “b”) of dollars, in an effort to stimulate national fiscal health for the past few years. “The economy is doing well enough that the U.S. government is going to stop propping it up,” reported NPR’s Rachel Martin in a November 2 broadcast.
And many other numbers support the notion of a rebounding marketplace. “It’s good. It’s consistent solid growth,” said Rich Thompson, chief human resources officer at staffing firm Adecco Group North America in a November 7th article appearing in Forbes, noting that the economy has had 49 months in a row of job gains, the longest stretch since the 1930s.
Within the pages of this year-end issue of MMR you’ll find similarly optimistic data, as it pertains to our own industry. Our annual “50 Dealer/50 State” review and forecast presents a radical change in retailer assessment compared to 2013. Last year, only 59 percent of dealers profiled in our feature reported that sales were up compared to 2012, whereas this year 73 percent said that 2014 was a more profitable year than the previous. “2014 has been an exceptional year,” enthused Frank Tilotta of Minnesota’s Music Go Round.
So is that it? Are we officially, convincingly, out of the recession that began in 2008/2009? Can I put away the much overused term, “cautiously optimistic” when reporting on the state of MI retail (God, I hope so)?
The fact is, the economy is an ever-shifting, quirky animal that takes on different shapes depending on geographic location, time of year, and… well, seemingly any other random factors you want to throw in there. You may feel we’re fully back on track, you may believe we’re still in the crapper.
In the course of speaking with Brian Ball about his “In the Trenches” column for this issue, he and I were discussing the state of our industry and what came to light is that, whether you believe we’re out of the woods with respect to the most recent economic downturn or not, it’s really always the same game: it’s never “easy” out there. Sure, The Beatles appearing on The Ed Sullivan Show was a boon for combo sales. Prior to that, a number of factors had driven accordion sales through the roof. Early ‘80s synth-pop created whole new instrument categories for retailers. EVH, Slash, Zakk Wylde, and Dimebag Darrell birthed entire generations of young aspiring axemen. Nirvana breaking big convinced throngs of kids (however talented/untalented) that they, too, could start bands. But, whatever the time period and whatever the overall state of the job market or national debt, et cetera, there are always challenges facing retailers. Whether it’s a rough economy, the arrival of a big-box location a few miles away, Internet sales, confusing MAP/MSRP policies, or whatever else, there have always been – and will always be – hurdles to overcome and mysteries to solve. Resourceful and proactive minds anticipate, adapt, and ultimately succeed. As Chuck Moebus of Moe’s Music in Virginia observes in this issue, “I say this is America, and you can succeed at that which you can do well.”
As we close the books on one calendar year and look towards 2015, I’d advocate for embracing and embodying that attitude. MI suppliers and retailers are passionate, resourceful, and creative – play to your strengths, keep your ear to the ground, and maintain a generous and positive outlook. This work you do has never been easy, but it’s always been worth it.
I’d also like to briefly mention the departure of a longtime member of MMR’s extended family. While Eliahu Sussman primarily worked on a couple of our sister publications – School Band & Orchestra and Choral Director – he was a regular attendee of/reporter at NAMM Shows and PASIC for the past eight years and I’m sure many of you had interactions with him and came to recognize him for the bright, engaging, and thoughtful individual that he is.
